the passenger car market in 2022 by Marc Bruschet Mobilians
The analysis of the French passenger car automotive market was carried out by Marc Bruschet, president of the VP dealership branch, based on Dataneo data. A related analysis shows that all the lights are red in the automotive sector. However, has the market bottomed out in 2022 and the outlook for 2023? Marc Bruschet remains cautious and he is quite right because usually the number of deliveries is no longer the first goal of the manufacturers.
It is difficult to answer, in fact, for this year 2023 when no one saw the war in Ukraine and the new difficulties inherent in this conflict.
A French PC market to fall again in 2022
Through the evaluations of the mobilian PC dealer branch, we understand that some generalist brands have played with fire in 2022 (Peugeot, Citroën or even Ford) while others such as Toyota or BMW are doing well . Despite the technical rebound in the second half of 2023, Marc Bruschet qualified the 2022 market as a “dive into the Mariana Trench”.
In the first half of 2022, the all-brands market (MTM) fell by 16.30%, while it slightly increased by 2.80% in the second half. This gives an annual decrease of 7.80% for a total of 1,529,059 registered vehicles. Since August 2022, the French market (all channels) has been positive every month (compared to the same period of 2021) with, however, a break in this “dynamic” in December: August (+3.8%), September ( +5.5 %), October (+5.5%), November (+9.8%) and December (-0.1%).
A recovery in VPP in the second half except for Peugeot, Citroën and Opel
“The restoration of MTM France in 2n/a semester 2022 rests pabove all in the recovery of the private individual market: (partial) delivery of the portfolio”, analysis of Mobilians. “The move in sales to individuals (VPP) into positive territory in H2 is about almost all brands the notable exception of those belonging to ” PSA perimeter” (PEUGEOT, CITROEN and OPEL) returning to tactical sales thus abandoning the profitable sales that were so important to Stellantis.
In addition, in tactics: a combination of the slowdown in the contraction of RVs with the clear expansion of Short Term Rental Companies.
The strong push recorded by Tactics is mainly due to the “PSA perimeter” scores … and the year-end “adjustments”, common practice among many Manufacturers. On the other hand, the Companies market (almost 50/50 split between Other Companies and LLDs) remained heavily burdened by Technical Rental Companies:
Drunkenness of the deep for the private market
Overall for the year 2022, the VPP market decreased by 26.50% compared to 2019 and almost 30.0% compared to the market average between 2016 and 2019. More worryingly (if necessary), we close the year 2022 with the number of VPP decreased by more than 7.0 % vs 2020, a year “cut” by 3 months of imprisonment.
Lack of oxygen for the corporate market
While this market experienced continuous growth from 2016 (457,789 units) to 2019 (565,419 units) and “handled the shock” in 2020 (467,046 PV) and 2021 (501,294 units), it fell sharply in 2020 (454,32). “Regarding the individual, we dropped to the level of 2020 (≈-3.0%) and we fell by ≈10.0% compared to the market average between 2016 and 2019”, analyzes Mobilians.
After the supply crisis, here is the demand crisis in 2023…
always according to Marc Bruschet Mobilians, a stack of crises can be summed up in the automotive market in 2023.
o Misleading macro-economic indicators (sluggish growth, inflation, declining purchasing power)
o Maintenance of strong industry barriers (supply crisis):
o Continued tension (euphemism) in logistics: beyond the specific situation of each Manufacturer, the fact remains that the sector continues to be seriously handicapped by the lack of drivers (tightening of regulations in Europe from February 2022 + war in Ukraine ) … and of trucks (under-investment for several years by the main operators due to the lack of visibility among the Manufacturers + insufficient production together with an explosion in prices).
New element: crisis of demand…
Break the positive momentum of orders from May: turn negative, often in double digits with worsening in Q4. As a whole in 2022, the order market decreased by approximately 7 to 8% compared to 2021: -6.7% for CCFA on a year-to-date basis and -8.5% for the ARGUS barometer. Main explanation: the price. For the record, it increased by more than 20.0% between 2019 and 2022.
The artificially high level of order books
The only good news: the (artificially) high level of portfolios. Estimated at ≈600,000 vehicles as of 12/31/2022, meaning 4 to 5 months of sales.
Problem: the swelling of portfolios is due to a stock effect (extending delivery times) and not to flows (orders falling in 7 months). In this regard, it is noteworthy that the‘the acceleration of inflation of portfolios (from May) coincides with the period of fall in monthly orders.
Result : if the registrations of 1eh semester should be held in 2023, it is likely‘be a problem in 2n/a semester unless there is a spectacular recovery in production volume accompanied by‘a great moderation in NV prices (probably, at this stage), end of Mobilians, suggesting a re-examination of the situation next March.
